The Transformation of China's Foreign Trade Behind the Expansion of Imports

2020-08-10 20:33


"Recently, an international authoritative organization assessed that China's total domestic consumption will exceed that of the United States for the first time in 2018. This means that after 2018, the world's largest market will no longer be the United States but China. This Regardless of whether the forecast is accurate or not, China's potential market size is three to four times that of the United States, and it is constantly turning from potential to reality, which is a foreseeable future prospect." Chinese Foreign Minister Yi said at the China-Latin America Economic and Trade Cooperation Forum and This statement in the opening speech of the China-Latin America Business Council has attracted the attention of many people in the industry.


Yi also said, "With the passage of time, China's trade structure with the United States and other countries will undergo fundamental changes sooner or later. Now when visiting the United States, especially places in the United States, the governors and entrepreneurs of various states are concerned about whether What China exports to them, but what they can export to China. It will become an unstoppable trend to care about and be willing to enter the Chinese market more. In the future, many countries, including the United States, will export to China. It will exceed imports from China, and the structure of Sino-foreign trade will also reverse, and it may be that China will face a deficit.”


"In fact, the Chinese government's views on China's trade status and foreign trade have changed. This is not the first time the Ministry of Foreign Affairs has said this." In an interview with a reporter from China Trade News, Yi said in his speech that China will become the largest consumer market in the world in 2018.


Zhong Feiteng said that this change has a context to follow. As early as April 7, 2013, when the chairman delivered a keynote speech at the Boao Forum for Asia Annual Conference, he mentioned that in the next five years, China will import goods worth about 10 trillion US dollars, and the scale of foreign investment will reach 500 billion US dollars. The number of outbound tourists may exceed 400 million. "From Chairman Xi's mention of import data, foreign investment data and outbound travel data, to China's decision to hold the China International Import Expo in November 2018, we can clearly see some new trends." Zhong Feiteng said.


In the past so many years, no country has surpassed the United States to become the world's largest consumer market, and Japan did not surpass it back then. In Zhong Feiteng's view, one of the reasons why the United States has gained the right to speak internationally is that the United States has a huge consumer market. "We used to say that 'China's contribution rate to world economic growth is 30%'. This statement is relatively abstract. If China becomes the world's largest consumer market and a larger import market, then the contribution of China's economic growth to the world economy will change. It must be visible and tangible, and the world will see China's real contribution more clearly in the future. This is of great significance for re-understanding the relationship between China and the world."


Zhong Feiteng believes that this change in foreign trade will also promote the structural reform of the domestic supply side. Because increasing the scale of external imports can stimulate domestic manufacturers to improve product quality. Such a stimulus is necessary in an era when consumers are increasingly discerning and demanding higher quality products.


Since the reform and opening up, my country has maintained a large-scale trade surplus and foreign exchange reserves for a long time. As imports increase and trade deficits are more acceptable, my country's balance of payments structure is also facing new adjustments. "The Chinese economy was small back then, so it was necessary to keep a lot of foreign exchange reserves. But as the Chinese economy grows bigger and bigger, whether it needs so much foreign exchange reserves is another matter. I bought a lot of US treasury bonds before, and the effect It’s not good.” Zhong Feiteng said that from a systemic point of view, expanding the scale of imports and bundling the economies of more countries can weaken the hegemony of the US dollar, and expanding imports will also expand the use of RMB in foreign affairs, which will also support the internationalization of the RMB. effect.


Generally speaking, the above changes involve the progress of my country's foreign trade thinking framework and opening strategy. For example, Zhong Feiteng said that some original policies to encourage exports should be adjusted appropriately. In the past, processing and manufacturing received attention, but now more consideration should be given to the environment, sanitation, health, etc., and more investment should be made in these areas; when the manufacturing industry is upgraded and the economy enters a stage of high-quality development, it is necessary to follow the new report of the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China. The main social contradictions to readjust the foreign trade strategy.


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